Most businesses study the wrong data
Feb 25, 2026
When they try to figure out where their marketing money is going.
When they try to figure out where their marketing money is going.
When they try to figure out where their marketing money is going.
They look at the customers who bought, trace back where each one came from,
They look at the customers who bought, trace back where each one came from,
They look at the customers who bought, trace back where each one came from,
And pour more money into finding people who look exactly like them.
And pour more money into finding people who look exactly like them.
And pour more money into finding people who look exactly like them.
It feels like careful analysis.
It feels like careful analysis.
It feels like careful analysis.
It's actually the easiest data to study.
It's actually the easiest data to study.
It's actually the easiest data to study.
It can't tell you the thing you most need to know.
It can't tell you the thing you most need to know.
It can't tell you the thing you most need to know.
Why so many other people, who looked identical on paper, never bought anything at all.
Why so many other people, who looked identical on paper, never bought anything at all.
Why so many other people, who looked identical on paper, never bought anything at all.
That's the actual leak. Not the ads, not the sales team.
That's the actual leak. Not the ads, not the sales team.
That's the actual leak. Not the ads, not the sales team.
The fact that nobody's studying the leads that went nowhere.
The fact that nobody's studying the leads that went nowhere.
The fact that nobody's studying the leads that went nowhere.
You can't diagnose a problem by only studying the survivors
During the Second World War, the U.S. military studied bombers returning from missions,
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Covered in bullet holes concentrated on the wings and tail, and planned to armor those exact spots.
Covered in bullet holes concentrated on the wings and tail, and planned to armor those exact spots.
Covered in bullet holes concentrated on the wings and tail, and planned to armor those exact spots.
A mathematician named Abraham Wald pointed out they had it backwards.
A mathematician named Abraham Wald pointed out they had it backwards.
A mathematician named Abraham Wald pointed out they had it backwards.
Armor the places with no bullet holes instead.
Armor the places with no bullet holes instead.
Armor the places with no bullet holes instead.
His reasoning: every plane in that data set had already survived being hit.
His reasoning: every plane in that data set had already survived being hit.
His reasoning: every plane in that data set had already survived being hit.
A bullet hole in the wing was damage a plane could absorb and still fly home.
A bullet hole in the wing was damage a plane could absorb and still fly home.
A bullet hole in the wing was damage a plane could absorb and still fly home.
The planes hit in the engine or the cockpit never made it back to be counted at all.
The planes hit in the engine or the cockpit never made it back to be counted at all.
The planes hit in the engine or the cockpit never made it back to be counted at all.
The data wasn't missing a few points.
The data wasn't missing a few points.
The data wasn't missing a few points.
It was missing every failure that actually mattered.
It was missing every failure that actually mattered.
It was missing every failure that actually mattered.
The Direct Parallel.
The Direct Parallel.
The Direct Parallel.
A spreadsheet of closed deals is built entirely from leads that survived the whole process.
A spreadsheet of closed deals is built entirely from leads that survived the whole process.
A spreadsheet of closed deals is built entirely from leads that survived the whole process.
The right fit, the right budget, the right timing.
The right fit, the right budget, the right timing.
The right fit, the right budget, the right timing.
It was never going to explain why a hundred other people who looked identical never bought anything.
It was never going to explain why a hundred other people who looked identical never bought anything.
It was never going to explain why a hundred other people who looked identical never bought anything.
The leads that went cold, the calls that got ignored, the demos nobody showed up for.
The leads that went cold, the calls that got ignored, the demos nobody showed up for.
The leads that went cold, the calls that got ignored, the demos nobody showed up for.
That's the missing engine and cockpit, and almost nobody studies it.
That's the missing engine and cockpit, and almost nobody studies it.
That's the missing engine and cockpit, and almost nobody studies it.
Why the budget keeps disappearing
Why the budget keeps disappearing
Why the budget keeps disappearing
Most lead systems are built to chase volume, not fit.
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Every extra lead treated as a win whether or not that person was ever going to buy.
Every extra lead treated as a win whether or not that person was ever going to buy.
Every extra lead treated as a win whether or not that person was ever going to buy.
More leads feel like more opportunity.
More leads feel like more opportunity.
More leads feel like more opportunity.
Usually it's just more time spent finding out, one call at a time, which few among hundreds were ever a fit.
Usually it's just more time spent finding out, one call at a time, which few among hundreds were ever a fit.
Usually it's just more time spent finding out, one call at a time, which few among hundreds were ever a fit.
The armor keeps going on the wings, because the wings are what everyone can see.
The armor keeps going on the wings, because the wings are what everyone can see.
The armor keeps going on the wings, because the wings are what everyone can see.
The four-part fix
The four-part fix
The four-part fix
| Go back through the ones that went cold, not just the ones that closed.
Pull the last fifty leads that disappeared without buying, and look at what they had in common.
Pull the last fifty leads that disappeared without buying, and look at what they had in common.
Pull the last fifty leads that disappeared without buying, and look at what they had in common.
Most of this data is already sitting untouched in a CRM.
Most of this data is already sitting untouched in a CRM.
Most of this data is already sitting untouched in a CRM.
It's the missing engine and cockpit, waiting to be studied.
It's the missing engine and cockpit, waiting to be studied.
It's the missing engine and cockpit, waiting to be studied.
| Add one real question before you spend another dollar chasing anyone.
Not a ten-field form nobody reads.
Not a ten-field form nobody reads.
Not a ten-field form nobody reads.
One sharp, specific question (budget, timeline, the actual problem) that a genuinely unfit lead won't bother answering honestly.
One sharp, specific question (budget, timeline, the actual problem) that a genuinely unfit lead won't bother answering honestly.
One sharp, specific question (budget, timeline, the actual problem) that a genuinely unfit lead won't bother answering honestly.
It should lose you some leads immediately.
It should lose you some leads immediately.
It should lose you some leads immediately.
That's the armor going on, not off.
That's the armor going on, not off.
That's the armor going on, not off.
| Chase fewer people who match exactly, instead of more who sort of do.
A hundred leads that vaguely resemble your best customers cost more in hours and patience than twenty that match closely.
A hundred leads that vaguely resemble your best customers cost more in hours and patience than twenty that match closely.
A hundred leads that vaguely resemble your best customers cost more in hours and patience than twenty that match closely.
Narrow the targeting until the volume drops and it's tempting to widen it back out. Don't.
Narrow the targeting until the volume drops and it's tempting to widen it back out. Don't.
Narrow the targeting until the volume drops and it's tempting to widen it back out. Don't.
| Let a lead die on schedule, instead of nursing it forever.
Every hour spent following up with someone who stopped responding weeks ago is,
Every hour spent following up with someone who stopped responding weeks ago is,
Every hour spent following up with someone who stopped responding weeks ago is,
An hour not spent on someone who might still say yes.
An hour not spent on someone who might still say yes.
An hour not spent on someone who might still say yes.
Set a real point where a cold lead gets marked gone, not "still possible."
Set a real point where a cold lead gets marked gone, not "still possible."
Set a real point where a cold lead gets marked gone, not "still possible."
Hope is expensive, and it's rarely billed to the person hoping.
Hope is expensive, and it's rarely billed to the person hoping.
Hope is expensive, and it's rarely billed to the person hoping.
Run a sales team through a long list of unqualified calls versus a shorter, filtered list.
Run a sales team through a long list of unqualified calls versus a shorter, filtered list.
Run a sales team through a long list of unqualified calls versus a shorter, filtered list.
The outcome tells you everything.
The outcome tells you everything.
The outcome tells you everything.
More calls ending in seconds versus fewer calls ending in booked meetings.
More calls ending in seconds versus fewer calls ending in booked meetings.
More calls ending in seconds versus fewer calls ending in booked meetings.
Proof this works even with less volume
Proof this works even with less volume
Proof this works even with less volume
A home renovation contractor runs ads for months, generating hundreds of leads a week.
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The phone never stops, and almost none of it turns into work.
The phone never stops, and almost none of it turns into work.
The phone never stops, and almost none of it turns into work.
Most callers are pricing around, months from any decision, some with no real budget at all.
Most callers are pricing around, months from any decision, some with no real budget at all.
Most callers are pricing around, months from any decision, some with no real budget at all.
Instead of running more ads, the team changes one thing on the intake form.
Instead of running more ads, the team changes one thing on the intake form.
Instead of running more ads, the team changes one thing on the intake form.
A single required question asking for a rough budget range before anyone can book a call.
A single required question asking for a rough budget range before anyone can book a call.
A single required question asking for a rough budget range before anyone can book a call.
Lead volume drops by more than half almost overnight.
Lead volume drops by more than half almost overnight.
Lead volume drops by more than half almost overnight.
For one uncomfortable week, it looks like a mistake.
For one uncomfortable week, it looks like a mistake.
For one uncomfortable week, it looks like a mistake.
Fewer than half the leads. More closed jobs than any month before it.
Fewer than half the leads. More closed jobs than any month before it.
Fewer than half the leads. More closed jobs than any month before it.
Nothing about the work changed.
Nothing about the work changed.
Nothing about the work changed.
They just stopped counting every plane that landed as a success,
They just stopped counting every plane that landed as a success,
They just stopped counting every plane that landed as a success,
And started asking which ones were actually worth armoring for.
And started asking which ones were actually worth armoring for.
And started asking which ones were actually worth armoring for.
How to know where the leak is
How to know where the leak is
How to know where the leak is
You don't have to guess. It's usually already written in your own call notes.
You don't have to guess. It's usually already written in your own call notes.
You don't have to guess. It's usually already written in your own call notes.
Nobody just goes back and reads them in one sitting.
Nobody just goes back and reads them in one sitting.
Nobody just goes back and reads them in one sitting.
| “Budget was way off from the start” means the filter question needs to happen earlier.
| “Wanted a decision-maker who wasn't actually on the call” means you're often talking to the wrong person.
| “Asked three sharp questions, booked before we hung up” is what a real match sounds like.
Read fifty of them in one sitting, not one at a time as they come in.
Read fifty of them in one sitting, not one at a time as they come in.
Read fifty of them in one sitting, not one at a time as they come in.
The pattern costing you the most money is almost always hiding in plain sight.
The pattern costing you the most money is almost always hiding in plain sight.
The pattern costing you the most money is almost always hiding in plain sight.
| Bottom line
| Bottom line
| Bottom line
Every business is still counting bullet holes on the planes that made it home,
Every business is still counting bullet holes on the planes that made it home,
Every business is still counting bullet holes on the planes that made it home,
Wondering why the budget keeps disappearing anyway.
Wondering why the budget keeps disappearing anyway.
Wondering why the budget keeps disappearing anyway.
The answer was never in what survived. It was in what never came back.
The answer was never in what survived. It was in what never came back.
The answer was never in what survived. It was in what never came back.
Go pull the leads that went cold. Find out what they had in common.
Go pull the leads that went cold. Find out what they had in common.
Go pull the leads that went cold. Find out what they had in common.